Will G2 Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$6.4

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.3¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL-$6.05

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$0.35

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 98.8¢	$365.56	$363.71	-$1.85	50% 4474-4422 (8896)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.8¢	$264.98	$263.64	-$1.34	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.9¢	$148.35	$147.45	-$0.9	10% 25-236 (261)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 98.8¢	$146.1	$145.36	-$0.74	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$88.92	$88.47	-$0.45	4% 15-322 (337)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.45	$49.15	-$0.3	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$49.4	$49.15	-$0.25	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.49	-$0.18	— 0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.74	$5.7	-$0.03	35% 2848-5314 (8162)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.89	$0.54	-$0.35	40% 2992-4404 (7396)

balthazar

Invested

$365.56

Value

$363.71

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

4474-4422 (8896)

cigarettes

Invested

$264.98

Value

$263.64

PnL

-$1.34

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

quietparcel

Invested

$148.35

Value

$147.45

PnL

-$0.9

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

kaxel78

Invested

$146.1

Value

$145.36

PnL

-$0.74

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$88.92

Value

$88.47

PnL

-$0.45

Record

15-322 (337)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$49.15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$49.4

Value

$49.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.49

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

2848-5314 (8162)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.35

Record

40%

2992-4404 (7396)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.