Will FUT Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$11.84

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 96.9¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,641

Combined PnL-$11.92

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.95

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.08

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.6¢	$361.12	$358.35	-$2.77	50% 4487-4433 (8920)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.6¢	$261.88	$259.75	-$2.13	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 97.6¢	$144.32	$143.21	-$1.11	26% 360-1007 (1367)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 97.6¢	$144.33	$143.21	-$1.12	28% 522-1370 (1892)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 97.6¢	$144.32	$143.21	-$1.11	30% 511-1182 (1693)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$97	$96.26	-$0.75	28% 367-935 (1302)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$87.84	$87.17	-$0.67	4% 15-322 (337)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$82.14	$81.51	-$0.63	— 8-8 (16)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$72.98	$72.64	-$0.34	10% 25-236 (261)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$73.06	$72.64	-$0.42	4% 14-366 (380)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$48.65	$48.43	-$0.22	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$48.8	$48.43	-$0.37	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$29.28	$29.06	-$0.23	— 0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$5.66	$5.62	-$0.04	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.87	$0.95	+$0.08	40% 3002-4411 (7413)

balthazar

Invested

$361.12

Value

$358.35

PnL

-$2.77

Record

50%

4487-4433 (8920)

cigarettes

Invested

$261.88

Value

$259.75

PnL

-$2.13

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

Likaseent

Invested

$144.32

Value

$143.21

PnL

-$1.11

Record

26%

360-1007 (1367)

kaxel78

Invested

$144.33

Value

$143.21

PnL

-$1.12

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

zerone777

Invested

$144.32

Value

$143.21

PnL

-$1.11

Record

30%

511-1182 (1693)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$97

Value

$96.26

PnL

-$0.75

Record

28%

367-935 (1302)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$87.84

Value

$87.17

PnL

-$0.67

Record

15-322 (337)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$82.14

Value

$81.51

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

8-8 (16)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$72.98

Value

$72.64

PnL

-$0.34

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$73.06

Value

$72.64

PnL

-$0.42

Record

14-366 (380)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$48.65

Value

$48.43

PnL

-$0.22

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$48.8

Value

$48.43

PnL

-$0.37

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$29.28

Value

$29.06

PnL

-$0.23

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.