Will FURIA Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$13.5K
$225.01
96.3¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 noreasapa | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $12.3K | $12.3K | +$16.68 | 91% 3581-335 (3916) |
YI yishiwucheng | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $400.99 | $662.19 | +$261.2 | 51% 1816-1745 (3561) |
LU LuckyWin | Yesavg 73.9¢ | $620.66 | $531.62 | -$89.04 | 85% 773-134 (907) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $54.95 | $27.58 | -$37.19 | 41% 1279-1824 (3103) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 70.9¢ | $490.72 | $2.26 | +$73.36 | 36% 15617-27548 (43165) |
noreasapaInvested
$12,280.31
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$16.68
Record
91%
3581-335 (3916)
Invested
$400.99
Value
$662.19
PnL
+$261.2
Record
51%
1816-1745 (3561)
Invested
$620.66
Value
$531.62
PnL
-$89.04
Record
85%
773-134 (907)
Invested
$54.95
Value
$27.58
PnL
-$37.19
Record
41%
1279-1824 (3103)
Invested
$490.72
Value
$2.26
PnL
+$73.36
Record
36%
15617-27548 (43165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.