Will FURIA Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$143.91
$1.51
88.1¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $56.77 | $57.19 | +$0.42 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $47.72 | $48.81 | +$1.1 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $26.7 | $26.7 | -$0 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.59 | $4.59 | -$0 | 47% 292-335 (627) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.47 | $4.47 | -$0 | 42% 321-439 (760) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | -$0 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
Invested
$56.77
Value
$57.19
PnL
+$0.42
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$47.72
Value
$48.81
PnL
+$1.1
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$26.7
PnL
-$0
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
292-335 (627)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.47
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
321-439 (760)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.