Will "Funny Money: The Dane Cook Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 18

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$121.77

Combined PnL

-$2.81

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$108.67

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$10.95

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.1

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$8.14

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$26.4	-$3.54	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.06	$25.6	-$3.46	30% 1043-2403 (3446)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.85	$20.55	-$0.3	30% 243-579 (822)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.8	$17.49	-$2.31	34% 276-525 (801)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.83	-$0.15	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$8.8	-$1.19	35% 251-467 (718)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.18	$5.76	+$3.58	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.89	$4.98	+$3.09	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.89	$2.36	+$1.47	43% 5075-6626 (11701)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$3.54

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.06

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$3.46

Record

30%

1043-2403 (3446)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$0.3

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$17.49

PnL

-$2.31

Record

34%

276-525 (801)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$0.15

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$1.19

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$3.58

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$3.09

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$1.47

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.