Will "FRESH" first week sales be at least 80k?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$431.91
$47.99
82.9¢ → 95.7¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Noavg 91¢ | $316.1 | $324.82 | +$8.72 | — 1-6 (7) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $64.07 | $99.54 | +$35.47 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.4 | $4.83 | +$3.43 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $2.07 | $2.07 | +$0 | — 1-18 (19) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.28 | $0.65 | +$0.37 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
Invested
$316.1
Value
$324.82
PnL
+$8.72
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$64.07
Value
$99.54
PnL
+$35.47
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$3.43
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.37
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.