Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$2.3K
$13.1
80.7¢ → 81.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1 P1kaso | Yesavg 80.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$51.73 | 63% 789-471 (1260) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Yesavg 83.8¢ | $160.1 | $157.66 | -$2.44 | 27% 6898-18905 (25803) |
 extractive-manateeCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.4¢ | $70.22 | $52.5 | -$17.72 | 33% 541-1086 (1627) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $16.8 | $14.87 | -$1.93 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.7¢ | $18.4 | $10.5 | -$7.9 | 49% 8853-9361 (18214) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $8 | $3.5 | -$4.5 | 53% 29396-26298 (55694) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $6.43 | $3.21 | -$3.21 | 59% 11938-8372 (20310) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.86 | $0.93 | -$0.93 | 32% 2587-5457 (8044) |
Invested
$2,034.83
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$51.73
Record
63%
789-471 (1260)
Invested
$160.1
Value
$157.66
PnL
-$2.44
Record
27%
6898-18905 (25803)
extractive-manateeCTR<$100Invested
$70.22
Value
$52.5
PnL
-$17.72
Record
33%
541-1086 (1627)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$14.87
PnL
-$1.93
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$7.9
Record
49%
8853-9361 (18214)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
53%
29396-26298 (55694)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$3.21
PnL
-$3.21
Record
59%
11938-8372 (20310)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$0.93
Record
32%
2587-5457 (8044)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.