Will Florida win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$109.12

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 81¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,779

Combined PnL+$34.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$85.8

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$143.57

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 81.5¢	$521.51	$1.1K	+$9.93	43% 254-332 (586)
ND ndb1	Noavg 82¢	$87.63	$206.13	-$1.23	66% 936-492 (1428)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 69.3¢	$352.66	$156.87	+$25.71	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$250	$82.5	-$155	40% 2728-4097 (6825)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.35	+$0.05	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$109.43	$3.3	+$11.43	49% 1867-1968 (3835)

Hyperlong

Invested

$521.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.93

Record

43%

254-332 (586)

ndb1

Invested

$87.63

Value

$206.13

PnL

-$1.23

Record

66%

936-492 (1428)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$352.66

Value

$156.87

PnL

+$25.71

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$82.5

PnL

-$155

Record

40%

2728-4097 (6825)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.43

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$11.43

Record

49%

1867-1968 (3835)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.