Will Florida (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$35.48

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 99.2¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL-$23.92

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.6

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$11.56

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 93.8¢	$1.1K	$604.41	-$32.95	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 95.2¢	$222	$220	+$8.66	41% 32-47 (79)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$54.26	$54.51	+$0.25	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.54	$29.94	+$0.4	54% 22131-19228 (41359)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$24.6	$24.79	+$0.19	30% 2167-5020 (7187)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$23.76	$23.79	+$0.03	41% 6764-9623 (16387)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.98	$22.79	-$0.18	38% 977-1591 (2568)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$21.31	$21.17	-$0.14	17% 1079-5368 (6447)
SM smallreceipt<$100	No	$19.82	$19.82	+$0	48% 8595-9145 (17740)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.02	$14.89	-$0.12	73% 13523-5052 (18575)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	39% 989-1579 (2568)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$15.84	$3.35	-$12.49	39% 1204-1904 (3108)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$22.31	$0.87	+$0.56	56% 171-137 (308)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.34	$0.34	+$0.64	25% 327-975 (1302)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.31	$0.04	-$0.27	42% 5267-7198 (12465)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,059.66

Value

$604.41

PnL

-$32.95

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$222

Value

$220

PnL

+$8.66

Record

41%

32-47 (79)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$54.26

Value

$54.51

PnL

+$0.25

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.54

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

22131-19228 (41359)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$0.19

Record

30%

2167-5020 (7187)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$23.76

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

6764-9623 (16387)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$22.98

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$21.31

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$0.14

Record

17%

1079-5368 (6447)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

8595-9145 (17740)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$0.12

Record

73%

13523-5052 (18575)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

39%

989-1579 (2568)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.84

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$12.49

Record

39%

1204-1904 (3108)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.31

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

171-137 (308)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.64

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

5267-7198 (12465)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.