Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$45.62

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 98.1¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,211

Combined PnL+$5.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.49

Total Shares1,637

Combined PnL+$40.5

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$5.08	77% 1422-420 (1842)
archaic	Noavg 98¢	$934.83	$935.69	+$0.86	85% 1931-344 (2275)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.6¢	$109.1	$107.03	-$0.51	77% 11767-3605 (15372)
XC xcaiox	Noavg 98.4¢	$101.63	$99.7	-$0.3	77% 203-61 (264)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$916.13	$17.23	-$22.64	42% 5362-7390 (12752)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$17.33	$7.77	+$66.89	35% 17266-31860 (49126)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$10.24	$6.48	-$3.75	61% 672-428 (1100)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$2,046.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$5.08

Record

77%

1422-420 (1842)

archaic

Invested

$934.83

Value

$935.69

PnL

+$0.86

Record

85%

1931-344 (2275)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$109.1

Value

$107.03

PnL

-$0.51

Record

77%

11767-3605 (15372)

xcaiox

Invested

$101.63

Value

$99.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

77%

203-61 (264)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$916.13

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$22.64

Record

42%

5362-7390 (12752)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.33

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$66.89

Record

35%

17266-31860 (49126)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.24

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$3.75

Record

61%

672-428 (1100)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.