Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $753 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$753.3
$0.41
81.5¢ → 85.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter | Noavg 83.4¢ | $336.1 | $308.27 | -$27.83 | 42% 5198-7120 (12318) |
 crypto-basenji | Noavg 85¢ | $202.88 | $182.59 | -$20.29 | 38% 167-276 (443) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $141.18 | $171.05 | +$29.87 | 36% 14908-27031 (41939) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $55.12 | $66.93 | +$11.81 | 51% 516-504 (1020) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $11.22 | $18.56 | +$7.34 | 61% 654-411 (1065) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $6.39 | $5.89 | -$0.5 | 57% 13208-10063 (23271) |
Invested
$336.1
Value
$308.27
PnL
-$27.83
Record
42%
5198-7120 (12318)
crypto-basenjiInvested
$202.88
Value
$182.59
PnL
-$20.29
Record
38%
167-276 (443)
Invested
$141.18
Value
$171.05
PnL
+$29.87
Record
36%
14908-27031 (41939)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$55.12
Value
$66.93
PnL
+$11.81
Record
51%
516-504 (1020)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$11.22
Value
$18.56
PnL
+$7.34
Record
61%
654-411 (1065)
Invested
$6.39
Value
$5.89
PnL
-$0.5
Record
57%
13208-10063 (23271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.