Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.8K
-$17.08
91.4¢ → 90.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 91.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$3.44 | 85% 1874-338 (2212) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 93.6¢ | $343.54 | $179.92 | -$12.29 | 42% 5196-7120 (12316) |
 tetrase | Noavg 89¢ | $135.19 | $134.43 | -$0.76 | 60% 803-536 (1339) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.5 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
 LolakisCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $235.01 | $11.87 | +$1.85 | 61% 654-411 (1065) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $8.96 | $7.02 | -$1.94 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
archaicInvested
$1,424.59
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$3.44
Record
85%
1874-338 (2212)
Invested
$343.54
Value
$179.92
PnL
-$12.29
Record
42%
5196-7120 (12316)
tetraseInvested
$135.19
Value
$134.43
PnL
-$0.76
Record
60%
803-536 (1339)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
LolakisCTRInvested
$235.01
Value
$11.87
PnL
+$1.85
Record
61%
654-411 (1065)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$7.02
PnL
-$1.94
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.