Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $615 held · ends Jan 21, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Thu, Jan 21, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$615.28

Combined PnL

$5.8

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 29.5¢

-27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$427.62

Total Shares576

Combined PnL+$9.84

No2 traders

Total Value$187.66

Total Shares230

Combined PnL-$4.04

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$456.72	$421.87	+$10.21	36% 14881-26989 (41870)
Istaroth	Noavg 61.6¢	$122.14	$114	-$1.14	26% 281-795 (1076)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 66¢	$76.56	$73.66	-$2.9	60% 803-536 (1339)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$6.12	$5.75	-$0.37	57% 13150-10021 (23171)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$456.72

Value

$421.87

PnL

+$10.21

Record

36%

14881-26989 (41870)

Istaroth

Invested

$122.14

Value

$114

PnL

-$1.14

Record

26%

281-795 (1076)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$76.56

Value

$73.66

PnL

-$2.9

Record

60%

803-536 (1339)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.37

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.