Will Finland be 1st in the World Happiness Report 2027?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 92¢ · $691 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$691.31

Combined PnL

$177.52

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 91.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$635.51

Total Shares695

Combined PnL+$179.72

No3 traders

Total Value$55.8

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$2.2

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Yesavg 92¢	$467.49	$464.95	-$2.54	73% 85-32 (117)
DO donthackme<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$9.83	$91.5	+$180.83	26% 55-157 (212)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 88.5¢	$35.39	$36.59	+$1.2	14% 104-631 (735)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$32	$36	+$4	48% 1239-1326 (2565)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 91¢	$126.38	$24.17	+$0.13	29% 315-771 (1086)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$18.2	$18.3	+$0.1	— 3-14 (17)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$24	$18	-$6	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$2	$1.8	-$0.2	36% 17-30 (47)

pagliacci4

Yes

Invested

$467.49

Value

$464.95

PnL

-$2.54

Record

73%

85-32 (117)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.83

Value

$91.5

PnL

+$180.83

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.39

Value

$36.59

PnL

+$1.2

Record

14%

104-631 (735)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$36

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

1239-1326 (2565)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$126.38

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$0.13

Record

29%

315-771 (1086)

GenaTheBondKilIer<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

3-14 (17)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$18

PnL

-$6

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

36%

17-30 (47)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.