Will "Final Destination Bloodlines" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$99.05
-$5.53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.78 | $29.91 | +$0.13 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.97 | $20.05 | +$0.08 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $19.35 | $19.43 | +$0.08 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $9.38 | $9.97 | +$0.59 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.02 | $8.77 | -$0.25 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $11.85 | $8.21 | -$3.64 | 47% 66-75 (141) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.92 | $1.41 | -$0.51 | 42% 191-267 (458) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $3.3 | $1.3 | -$1.99 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
Invested
$29.78
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.13
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.97
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$19.35
Value
$19.43
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.38
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$0.59
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$8.77
PnL
-$0.25
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$8.21
PnL
-$3.64
Record
47%
66-75 (141)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0.51
Record
42%
191-267 (458)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$1.99
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.