Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$963.39

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 5.5¢

+130% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares28,123

Combined PnL+$947.45

No1 trader

Total Value$364.95

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$15.94

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

881h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$449.46	$765.91	+$316.45	41% 2188-3126 (5314)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.89	$546.78	+$519.9	44% 516-666 (1182)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 94.1¢	$349.01	$364.95	+$15.94	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$43.01	$90.38	+$48.51	51% 949-928 (1877)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$71.59	$89.16	+$23.61	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$6.26	$56.07	+$28.92	38% 16029-25855 (41884)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$269.73	$52.2	-$5.55	49% 6418-6597 (13015)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$7.38	$13.73	+$6.34	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$7.77	$10.13	+$4.03	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.36	$7.26	+$3.9	55% 39043-31788 (70831)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$5.65	$7	+$1.35	33% 20011-40834 (60845)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$449.46

Value

$765.91

PnL

+$316.45

Record

41%

2188-3126 (5314)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$26.89

Value

$546.78

PnL

+$519.9

Record

44%

516-666 (1182)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$349.01

Value

$364.95

PnL

+$15.94

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.01

Value

$90.38

PnL

+$48.51

Record

51%

949-928 (1877)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.59

Value

$89.16

PnL

+$23.61

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$56.07

PnL

+$28.92

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$269.73

Value

$52.2

PnL

-$5.55

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$6.34

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$4.03

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$3.9

Record

55%

39043-31788 (70831)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

PnL

+$1.35

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

881h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1358.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

1458.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.