Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$3.5K
$329.23
84.6¢ → 92.2¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Irboz-sama | Yesavg 90.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$23.21 | — |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Yesavg 75.9¢ | $955.45 | $1.1K | +$222.43 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
BE Bet1nthedark | Yesavg 93.1¢ | $654.9 | $648.57 | -$6.33 | — 0-4 (4) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 69.8¢ | $280.55 | $370.47 | +$89.92 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
Irboz-samaInvested
$1,357.07
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$23.21
Record
—
Invested
$955.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$222.43
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$654.9
Value
$648.57
PnL
-$6.33
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$280.55
Value
$370.47
PnL
+$89.92
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.