Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will "expectations - Olivia Rodrigo, Chappell Roan" be the #2 US song this week?
Resolved No. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Yes 87%
$162.99
-$132.42
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.04 | $82 | -$22.9 | 71% 13984-5672 (19656) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $24.92 | $50.99 | -$19.17 | 46% 9444-11174 (20618) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $353.05 | $30 | -$24.33 | 53% 12604-11065 (23669) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 67% 27587-13890 (41477) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | 52% 31079-29042 (60121) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 32% 3291-7156 (10447) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.11 | — | -$0.11 | 34% 19439-36995 (56434) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 42% 923-1279 (2202) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 53% 23842-20976 (44818) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | — | +$0 | 38% 7338-11775 (19113) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 47% 10383-11860 (22243) |
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yes | $228.79 | — | +$0 | 43% 8800-11453 (20253) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $50.07 | — | -$50.07 | 38% 7188-11813 (19001) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 2130-4072 (6202) |
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 35% 1841-3410 (5251) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 17% 397-1989 (2386) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 17% 4509-22111 (26620) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$99.04
Value
$82
PnL
-$22.9
Record
71%
13984-5672 (19656)
Invested
$24.92
Value
$50.99
PnL
-$19.17
Record
46%
9444-11174 (20618)
Invested
$353.05
Value
$30
PnL
-$24.33
Record
53%
12604-11065 (23669)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
67%
27587-13890 (41477)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
52%
31079-29042 (60121)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
32%
3291-7156 (10447)
Invested
$0.11
Value
—
PnL
-$0.11
Record
34%
19439-36995 (56434)
Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
923-1279 (2202)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
23842-20976 (44818)
Invested
$19.98
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
7338-11775 (19113)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
10383-11860 (22243)
Invested
$228.79
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
8800-11453 (20253)
Invested
$50.07
Value
—
PnL
-$50.07
Record
38%
7188-11813 (19001)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
2130-4072 (6202)
Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
35%
1841-3410 (5251)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
397-1989 (2386)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
4509-22111 (26620)