Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 15 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 34¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$216.24

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 33.5¢

-41% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,244

Combined PnL-$103.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$19.66

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$112.83

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

774h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$44.41	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.1¢	$775.18	$659.22	-$143.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.5¢	$295.38	$368.1	+$99
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 55.5¢	$432.35	$419.92	+$1.19	50% 1272-1290 (2562)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 64.9¢	$456	$310.56	-$145.44	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
GO godblessme2026CTR	Noavg 45.8¢	$100.29	$119.42	+$19.14	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$35.71	$64.88	+$29.16	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$59.31	$60.99	+$1.68	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$77.18	$60.34	-$16.84	40% 273-416 (689)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$57.5	$49.05	-$8.45	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$37.54	$40.92	+$3.38	32% 440-926 (1366)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$23.2	$32.7	+$9.5	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	$57.93	$31.61	+$2.68	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$21.6	$20	-$0.27	15% 459-2699 (3158)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.5	$13.65	+$3.15	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 32.4¢	$5.04	$8.47	+$3.43	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$8.69	$7.77	-$0.93	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$5.21	$3.95	-$1.27	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 28¢	$423.47	$3.29	-$118.99	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$2.01	$1.64	-$0.37	42% 3770-5142 (8912)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100	Yes	$1.37	$1.37	+$1.5	49% 123-126 (249)
GO god83743894<$100	Yes	$1.35	$1.35	+$1.51	46% 10278-11960 (22238)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,425.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$44.41

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$775.1864.1¢-$143.42

Yes$295.3836.5¢+$99

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$432.35

Value

$419.92

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

1272-1290 (2562)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$456

Value

$310.56

PnL

-$145.44

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

godblessme2026CTR

Invested

$100.29

Value

$119.42

PnL

+$19.14

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$35.71

Value

$64.88

PnL

+$29.16

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$59.31

Value

$60.99

PnL

+$1.68

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$77.18

Value

$60.34

PnL

-$16.84

Record

40%

273-416 (689)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$57.5

Value

$49.05

PnL

-$8.45

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$37.54

Value

$40.92

PnL

+$3.38

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

$32.7

PnL

+$9.5

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$57.93

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$2.68

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.27

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$3.15

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$3.43

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$8.69

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$0.93

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$1.27

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$423.47

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$118.99

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.37

Record

42%

3770-5142 (8912)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

god83743894<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$1.51

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

774h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.