Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 76¢ · $749 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$749.29

Combined PnL

$437.04

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 75.7¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$475.39

Total Shares610

Combined PnL-$85.74

Yes6 traders

Total Value$273.9

Total Shares1,621

Combined PnL+$522.78

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 91.9¢	$98.36	$382.21	-$70.27	56% 18152-14046 (32198)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$116.81	$202.63	+$122.82	20% 2469-9859 (12328)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$34.72	$73.78	-$15.3	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$7.5	$21.48	+$24.09	58% 6280-4536 (10816)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$120.14	$18.06	+$365.41	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$16.54	$17.09	+$0.55	53% 7948-7058 (15006)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$4.44	$16.19	+$11.75	49% 1247-1273 (2520)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995fCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.7¢	$14.45	$12.67	-$1.78	73% 249-94 (343)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$2.38	$2.87	+$0.49	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$3.03	$2.3	-$0.73	36% 205-358 (563)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$98.36

Value

$382.21

PnL

-$70.27

Record

56%

18152-14046 (32198)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.81

Value

$202.63

PnL

+$122.82

Record

20%

2469-9859 (12328)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.72

Value

$73.78

PnL

-$15.3

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$21.48

PnL

+$24.09

Record

58%

6280-4536 (10816)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.14

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$365.41

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$16.54

Value

$17.09

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

7948-7058 (15006)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.44

Value

$16.19

PnL

+$11.75

Record

49%

1247-1273 (2520)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.45

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$1.78

Record

73%

249-94 (343)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.49

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.73

Record

36%

205-358 (563)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.6%

75.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.