Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$28.9

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 99.6¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,620

Combined PnL+$90.36

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.72

Total Shares1,854

Combined PnL-$61.45

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.7¢	$509.88	$509.99	+$0.11	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 70¢	$209.75	$299.09	+$89.34	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.6¢	$214.12	$214.46	+$0.35	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$181.66	$181.39	-$0.27	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.5¢	$122.62	$122.98	+$0.31	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$86.64	$86.78	+$0.15	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$84.12	$84.79	+$0.7	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$91.14	$82.9	-$0.32	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.06	$18.05	-$0.01	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$15.73	$15.73	+$0	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$16.94	$1.87	-$15.07	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.35	$1.19	-$0.16	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$6.74	$0.95	-$5.79	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$0.51	-$33.13	27% 453-1221 (1674)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$45	$0.2	-$7.3	36% 2007-3593 (5600)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$509.88

Value

$509.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

godblessme2026

Invested

$209.75

Value

$299.09

PnL

+$89.34

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

smallreceipt

Invested

$214.12

Value

$214.46

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

merod

Invested

$181.66

Value

$181.39

PnL

-$0.27

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

donthackme

Invested

$122.62

Value

$122.98

PnL

+$0.31

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

korda77<$100

Invested

$86.64

Value

$86.78

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$84.12

Value

$84.79

PnL

+$0.7

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$91.14

Value

$82.9

PnL

-$0.32

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$18.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.73

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.94

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$15.07

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.16

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.74

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$5.79

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$33.13

Record

27%

453-1221 (1674)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$7.3

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.