Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.9K
$432.33
50.9¢ → 58.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $890.53 | $1.1K | +$256.02 | — 7-2 (9) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $208.69 | $300 | +$91.31 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 65¢ | $385.02 | $268.46 | -$37.51 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 39.4¢ | $398.75 | $188.37 | +$130.09 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $59.97 | $40.39 | -$7.58 | 42% 5285-7247 (12532) |
Invested
$890.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$256.02
Record
—
7-2 (9)
StarMasterInvested
$208.69
Value
$300
PnL
+$91.31
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
IstarothInvested
$385.02
Value
$268.46
PnL
-$37.51
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$398.75
Value
$188.37
PnL
+$130.09
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$59.97
Value
$40.39
PnL
-$7.58
Record
42%
5285-7247 (12532)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.