Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$227.94

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 32.4¢

-28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$541.61

Total Shares767

Combined PnL+$230.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$307.87

Total Shares1,118

Combined PnL-$2.31

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$968.39	$615.05	+$40.27	35% 17407-32097 (49504)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.1¢	$315.16	$373.33	+$30.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.7¢	$280.94	$241.72	+$9.36
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$288.4	$283.7	-$2.24	16% 427-2281 (2708)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$207.08	$191.77	-$15.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.6¢	$78.4	$91.93	+$13.07
NO northdrawer	Noavg 34.1¢	$119.99	$252.8	+$132.81	61% 14391-9243 (23634)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 58.7¢	$302.3	$144.97	-$157.33	53% 1875-1658 (3533)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$38.17	$91.17	+$53	57% 17248-13012 (30260)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$31.65	$71.41	+$39.77	74% 12150-4330 (16480)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$515.09	$60.37	+$149.53	53% 500-443 (943)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$40.07	$44.62	+$4.54	53% 21911-19053 (40964)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65¢	$38.48	$40.02	+$1.54	79% 11666-3099 (14765)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 37¢	$19	$39.52	+$20.52	55% 4996-4062 (9058)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 65.4¢	$64.84	$28.58	-$36.26	42% 5370-7408 (12778)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 29.8¢	$11.22	$28	+$16.87	36% 2145-3843 (5988)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$16.32	$16.9	+$0.58	59% 10674-7364 (18038)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$15.79	$16.22	+$0.43	25% 299-916 (1215)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$32.99	$12.37	-$0.04	24% 684-2137 (2821)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$19.8	$2.53	+$1.98	53% 7655-6778 (14433)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$968.39

Value

$615.05

PnL

+$40.27

Record

35%

17407-32097 (49504)

Both legs:

No$315.1657.1¢+$30.9

Yes$280.9437.7¢+$9.36

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$288.4

Value

$283.7

PnL

-$2.24

Record

16%

427-2281 (2708)

Both legs:

No$207.0873¢-$15.31

Yes$78.427.6¢+$13.07

northdrawer

Invested

$119.99

Value

$252.8

PnL

+$132.81

Record

61%

14391-9243 (23634)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$302.3

Value

$144.97

PnL

-$157.33

Record

53%

1875-1658 (3533)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$38.17

Value

$91.17

PnL

+$53

Record

57%

17248-13012 (30260)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.65

Value

$71.41

PnL

+$39.77

Record

74%

12150-4330 (16480)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$515.09

Value

$60.37

PnL

+$149.53

Record

53%

500-443 (943)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40.07

Value

$44.62

PnL

+$4.54

Record

53%

21911-19053 (40964)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$38.48

Value

$40.02

PnL

+$1.54

Record

79%

11666-3099 (14765)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$39.52

PnL

+$20.52

Record

55%

4996-4062 (9058)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.84

Value

$28.58

PnL

-$36.26

Record

42%

5370-7408 (12778)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

$28

PnL

+$16.87

Record

36%

2145-3843 (5988)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.58

Record

59%

10674-7364 (18038)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$0.43

Record

25%

299-916 (1215)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$32.99

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$0.04

Record

24%

684-2137 (2821)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.8

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$1.98

Record

53%

7655-6778 (14433)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.5%

32.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$190.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

290.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.