Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 92¢ · $426 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$425.58
-$145.28
60.5¢ → 92.2¢
+52% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 59.6¢ | $208.91 | $260.95 | +$52.04 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 87.7¢ | $278.77 | $65.6 | -$172.24 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 22.7¢ | $15.55 | $63.33 | +$47.78 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $84.89 | $30.06 | -$32.09 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $54.82 | $5.17 | -$38.23 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $2.93 | $0.39 | -$2.54 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
Invested
$208.91
Value
$260.95
PnL
+$52.04
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$278.77
Value
$65.6
PnL
-$172.24
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$63.33
PnL
+$47.78
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$84.89
Value
$30.06
PnL
-$32.09
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
Invested
$54.82
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$38.23
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$2.54
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.