Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of December 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $610 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$610.39
$58.9
78¢ → 89.2¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
48h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.4¢ | $374.34 | $435.23 | +$60.89 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 89.8¢ | $208.45 | $89.96 | -$2.95 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $62.36 | $75.61 | +$13.25 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $15.29 | $5.75 | -$9.54 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $14.74 | $2.07 | -$4.37 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $13.56 | $1.78 | +$1.63 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
Invested
$374.34
Value
$435.23
PnL
+$60.89
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
HaradwaithInvested
$208.45
Value
$89.96
PnL
-$2.95
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$62.36
Value
$75.61
PnL
+$13.25
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$9.54
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
Invested
$14.74
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$4.37
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.56
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$1.63
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.