Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in November?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 86¢ · $17K held · ends Dec 1

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$221.25

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 85.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares16,661

Combined PnL+$790.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares16,885

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 80.5¢	$8.7K	$9.2K	+$530.88	65% 3106-1654 (4760)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 80¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$250.17	46% 520-601 (1121)
KO KongXCTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$449.96	28% 189-495 (684)
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$1.2K	$733.71	-$443.01	50% 260-255 (515)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 82.4¢	$466.84	$478.57	+$11.73	55% 846-701 (1547)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$383.25	$264.63	-$118.63	62% 880-543 (1423)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 76.6¢	$353.37	$161.9	-$3.17	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$14.15	$14.9	+$0.75	49% 10705-11356 (22061)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,681.63

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$530.88

Record

65%

3106-1654 (4760)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$4,002.78

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$250.17

Record

46%

520-601 (1121)

KongXCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,037.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$449.96

Record

28%

189-495 (684)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,176.72

Value

$733.71

PnL

-$443.01

Record

50%

260-255 (515)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$466.84

Value

$478.57

PnL

+$11.73

Record

55%

846-701 (1547)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$383.25

Value

$264.63

PnL

-$118.63

Record

62%

880-543 (1423)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$353.37

Value

$161.9

PnL

-$3.17

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$14.15

Value

$14.9

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

10705-11356 (22061)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.3%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.