Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in November?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
$329.84
71.9¢ → 80.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $4.4K | $4.9K | +$528.73 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $474.27 | $264.9 | -$209.37 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.4¢ | $158.9 | $161.82 | +$2.92 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
GE getbippedARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $99.27 | $95.14 | -$4.13 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $66.99 | $71.34 | +$4.35 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $32.28 | $23.8 | -$8.48 | |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $60.48 | $68.04 | +$7.56 | 40% 41-62 (103) |
Invested
$4,390
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$528.73
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$474.27
Value
$264.9
PnL
-$209.37
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$158.9
Value
$161.82
PnL
+$2.92
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$99.27
Value
$95.14
PnL
-$4.13
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.48
Value
$68.04
PnL
+$7.56
Record
40%
41-62 (103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.