Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in October?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$8.2K
-$189.4
82.2¢ → 88¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 85.2¢ | $4.7K | $4.4K | -$259.69 | 49% 200-206 (406) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$132.43 | 43% 174-231 (405) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 83¢ | $698.07 | $681.25 | -$16.82 | 63% 771-447 (1218) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $148.37 | $83.79 | -$64.58 | 59% 273-188 (461) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $28.31 | $37.34 | +$19.26 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
Invested
$4,675.9
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$259.69
Record
49%
200-206 (406)
Invested
$2,862.95
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$132.43
Record
43%
174-231 (405)
Invested
$698.07
Value
$681.25
PnL
-$16.82
Record
63%
771-447 (1218)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$148.37
Value
$83.79
PnL
-$64.58
Record
59%
273-188 (461)
Invested
$28.31
Value
$37.34
PnL
+$19.26
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.