Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in November?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.1K
$135.14
42.6¢ → 50.5¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 44.4¢ | $483.27 | $544.57 | +$61.3 | 66% 95-49 (144) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 39¢ | $372.62 | $298.98 | +$74.9 | 50% 89-89 (178) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 40¢ | $401.85 | $92.04 | +$66.89 | 47% 15-17 (32) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $512.77 | $54.79 | -$61.34 | — 1-0 (1) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 48.9¢ | $132.69 | $54.02 | -$6.55 | 40% 3214-4824 (8038) |
SU suntori<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $18.69 | $19.71 | +$1.02 | 47% 1377-1532 (2909) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.1¢ | $66.53 | $5.81 | -$1.06 | 47% 742-833 (1575) |
Invested
$483.27
Value
$544.57
PnL
+$61.3
Record
66%
95-49 (144)
Invested
$372.62
Value
$298.98
PnL
+$74.9
Record
50%
89-89 (178)
Invested
$401.85
Value
$92.04
PnL
+$66.89
Record
47%
15-17 (32)
Invested
$512.77
Value
$54.79
PnL
-$61.34
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$132.69
Value
$54.02
PnL
-$6.55
Record
40%
3214-4824 (8038)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$19.71
PnL
+$1.02
Record
47%
1377-1532 (2909)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$66.53
Value
$5.81
PnL
-$1.06
Record
47%
742-833 (1575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.