Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in November?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 84¢ · $10K held · ends Dec 1

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$211.69

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 83.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares9,763

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares8,330

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 74.5¢	$7.1K	$8.3K	+$1.2K	68% 208-97 (305)
KO KongXCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$2.0K	$989.85	$-1.0K	1% 1-159 (160)
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$465.56	$185.58	-$279.99	47% 23-26 (49)
PippiTrader	Noavg 74.7¢	$141.3	$125.66	+$3.41	47% 46-52 (98)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$124.36	$76.3	-$48.07	52% 139-129 (268)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$49.5	$41.72	-$7.78	68% 30-14 (44)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$85.33	$25.52	+$0.87	50% 1577-1608 (3185)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$57.26	$12.8	-$9.33	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$4.67	$3.94	-$0.73	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$7,137.72

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

68%

208-97 (305)

KongXCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,011.2

Value

$989.85

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

1-159 (160)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$465.56

Value

$185.58

PnL

-$279.99

Record

47%

23-26 (49)

PippiTrader

Invested

$141.3

Value

$125.66

PnL

+$3.41

Record

47%

46-52 (98)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.36

Value

$76.3

PnL

-$48.07

Record

52%

139-129 (268)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.5

Value

$41.72

PnL

-$7.78

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$85.33

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.26

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$9.33

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.73

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.