Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in November?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 41¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$209.74

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 40.5¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,985

Combined PnL-$850.86

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,987

Combined PnL+$641.12

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 59.9¢	$2.4K	$1.2K	-$548.6	49% 25-26 (51)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 28.6¢	$514.79	$954.84	+$440.04	68% 32-15 (47)
TO Tokor	Noavg 26¢	$201.89	$411.14	+$209.25	52% 141-132 (273)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$121.95	$127.37	+$5.42	65% 15-8 (23)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 53¢	$109.18	$109.18	+$0	— 3-13 (16)
PippiTrader<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$80.61	$78.98	-$1.63	46% 46-53 (99)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 56¢	$86.83	$30.39	-$1.06	50% 1631-1654 (3285)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 57¢	$104.21	$6.68	-$5.48	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 68.2¢	$890.99	$0.63	-$307.68	49% 213-224 (437)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,394.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$548.6

Record

49%

25-26 (51)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$514.79

Value

$954.84

PnL

+$440.04

Record

68%

32-15 (47)

Tokor

Invested

$201.89

Value

$411.14

PnL

+$209.25

Record

52%

141-132 (273)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR

Yes

Invested

$121.95

Value

$127.37

PnL

+$5.42

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$109.18

Value

$109.18

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-13 (16)

PippiTrader<$100

Invested

$80.61

Value

$78.98

PnL

-$1.63

Record

46%

46-53 (99)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$86.83

Value

$30.39

PnL

-$1.06

Record

50%

1631-1654 (3285)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$104.21

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$5.48

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$890.99

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$307.68

Record

49%

213-224 (437)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.