Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 72¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.2K
$186.02
59.5¢ → 71.5¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GE getbipped | Noavg 60.9¢ | $4.4K | $4.6K | +$190.41 | 49% 200-206 (406) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $333.31 | $329 | -$4.31 | 43% 174-231 (405) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $422.42 | $202.26 | -$14.09 | 59% 273-188 (461) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $95.37 | $65.03 | +$6.16 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $18.13 | $25.97 | +$7.84 | 54% 742-631 (1373) |
Invested
$4,416.17
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$190.41
Record
49%
200-206 (406)
Invested
$333.31
Value
$329
PnL
-$4.31
Record
43%
174-231 (405)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$422.42
Value
$202.26
PnL
-$14.09
Record
59%
273-188 (461)
Invested
$95.37
Value
$65.03
PnL
+$6.16
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
Invested
$18.13
Value
$25.97
PnL
+$7.84
Record
54%
742-631 (1373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.