Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in November?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 72¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$921.28

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 71.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares15,910

Combined PnL-$188.66

Yes2 traders

Total Value$336.74

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 80.6¢	$4.9K	$5.3K	+$374.69	65% 3067-1635 (4702)
TO Tokor	Noavg 75.2¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$171.31	62% 865-535 (1400)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 89.3¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$346.59	77% 306-89 (395)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 74¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$37.19	55% 845-701 (1546)
GE getbippedCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$8.6K	$330.49	+$1.1K	50% 256-254 (510)
PippiTrader	Noavg 73.6¢	$281.43	$275.44	-$4.57	59% 440-303 (743)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$28.2	$34.22	-$2.84	48% 10435-11100 (21535)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$34.3	$33.47	-$0.84	77% 12718-3882 (16600)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$164.46	$6.25	+$8.48	34% 19360-36909 (56269)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$4,932.43

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$374.69

Record

65%

3067-1635 (4702)

Tokor

Invested

$3,507.91

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$171.31

Record

62%

865-535 (1400)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,812.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$346.59

Record

77%

306-89 (395)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$1,217.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.19

Record

55%

845-701 (1546)

getbippedCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,587.7

Value

$330.49

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

256-254 (510)

PippiTrader

Invested

$281.43

Value

$275.44

PnL

-$4.57

Record

59%

440-303 (743)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$34.22

PnL

-$2.84

Record

48%

10435-11100 (21535)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$33.47

PnL

-$0.84

Record

77%

12718-3882 (16600)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.46

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$8.48

Record

34%

19360-36909 (56269)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.9%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.