Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in November?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $29K held · ends Dec 1

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

-$224.07

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 86.6¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares29,170

Combined PnL-$121.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares33,091

Combined PnL-$103.06

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 86¢	$14.9K	$12.7K	+$154.18	68% 208-100 (308)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Noavg 84.6¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$64.49	68% 32-15 (47)
HQ hqb.predictionCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$120.15	7% 3-40 (43)
GE getbipped	Noavg 91.1¢	$4.7K	$4.4K	-$334.97	49% 25-26 (51)
PippiTrader	Noavg 87¢	$183.54	$178.51	-$5.03	46% 46-53 (99)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$47.64	$33.54	+$0.32	50% 1631-1654 (3285)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$104.53	$0.96	+$16.72	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
TS tsihkodiivesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$0.14	$0.51	+$0.37	— 3-2 (5)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$14,928.34

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$154.18

Record

68%

208-100 (308)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Invested

$7,749.84

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$64.49

Record

68%

32-15 (47)

hqb.predictionCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,677.54

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$120.15

Record

3-40 (43)

getbipped

Invested

$4,685.37

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$334.97

Record

49%

25-26 (51)

PippiTrader

Invested

$183.54

Value

$178.51

PnL

-$5.03

Record

46%

46-53 (99)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$47.64

Value

$33.54

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

1631-1654 (3285)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.53

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$16.72

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

tsihkodiivesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.37

Record

—

3-2 (5)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.3%

86.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.