Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 Action of the Year?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $94 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$94.02
-$1.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.66 | -$0.22 | 53% 3156-2749 (5905) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $27.08 | $26.94 | -$0.14 | 55% 25912-21183 (47095) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $25.69 | $25.7 | +$0.01 | 43% 5953-7860 (13813) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $9.96 | $9.89 | -$0.08 | 50% 7785-7688 (15473) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $2.34 | $1.72 | -$0.62 | 40% 9505-14441 (23946) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.09 | $0.11 | +$0.03 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.66
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
3156-2749 (5905)
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.08
Value
$26.94
PnL
-$0.14
Record
55%
25912-21183 (47095)
Invested
$25.69
Value
$25.7
PnL
+$0.01
Record
43%
5953-7860 (13813)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
7785-7688 (15473)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0.62
Record
40%
9505-14441 (23946)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.03
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.