Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will ERC win the most seats in Lleida in the 2026 Spanish general election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 38¢ · $720 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$720.39
$289.99
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $265.04 | $371.3 | +$106.27 | 73% 2888-1068 (3956) |
 musicenthusiastCTR | Yes | $246.06 | $246.06 | +$129.21 | 59% 410-285 (695) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 61.4¢ | $403.94 | $56.52 | +$62.77 | 35% 17563-32834 (50397) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $51.75 | $46.5 | -$8.25 | 17% 1065-5312 (6377) |
viniiCTRInvested
$265.04
Value
$371.3
PnL
+$106.27
Record
73%
2888-1068 (3956)
musicenthusiastCTRInvested
$246.06
Value
$246.06
PnL
+$129.21
Record
59%
410-285 (695)
Invested
$403.94
Value
$56.52
PnL
+$62.77
Record
35%
17563-32834 (50397)
Invested
$51.75
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$8.25
Record
17%
1065-5312 (6377)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.