Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.5K
-$232.89
73.9¢ → 93¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 73.8¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$155.97 | 74% 2795-1006 (3801) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 74.9¢ | $618.94 | $478.5 | -$129.33 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $140.22 | $95.97 | +$53.68 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $44.84 | $42.42 | -$2.42 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.7 | $2.85 | +$1.15 | 45% 1907-2353 (4260) |
viniiInvested
$5,042.13
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$155.97
Record
74%
2795-1006 (3801)
IstarothInvested
$618.94
Value
$478.5
PnL
-$129.33
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$140.22
Value
$95.97
PnL
+$53.68
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.84
Value
$42.42
PnL
-$2.42
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$1.15
Record
45%
1907-2353 (4260)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.