Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $7.9B by November 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $132 held · ends Dec 1
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Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$131.81
-$9.99
91.3¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 93¢ | $105.32 | $106.48 | +$1.16 | — 4-3 (7) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $18.7 | +$2.3 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $17 | $5.2 | -$11.8 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $3.08 | $1.43 | -$1.65 | — 1-9 (10) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.