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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $588 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$588.1
-$65.13
84.4¢ → 76.1¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 84.9¢ | $262.25 | $237.23 | -$25.02 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
 HoshinoAI | Noavg 84.6¢ | $268.65 | $184.31 | -$26.01 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
SU SulkingCrypto | Noavg 83.3¢ | $168.27 | $147.46 | -$12.2 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $12.41 | $11.43 | -$0.98 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $8.61 | $7.68 | -$0.93 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Invested
$262.25
Value
$237.23
PnL
-$25.02
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
HoshinoAIInvested
$268.65
Value
$184.31
PnL
-$26.01
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Invested
$168.27
Value
$147.46
PnL
-$12.2
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.41
Value
$11.43
PnL
-$0.98
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$0.93
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.