Will "Encore" be played first at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$300.68

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 96.4¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,928

Combined PnL+$378.84

Yes6 traders

Total Value$53.48

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL-$78.16

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST Stonktrader	Noavg 85.6¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$380.17	12% 4-29 (33)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$61.29	$21.57	-$39.72	23% 514-1702 (2216)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$18.46	$17.12	-$1.34	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$70.91	$14.89	-$7.86	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$29.97	$10.54	-$19.42	8% 8-97 (105)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$13.64	$4.8	-$8.84	10% 9-79 (88)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$3.23	$1.05	-$2.19	43% 26-34 (60)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$0.77	$0.65	-$0.13	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

Stonktrader

Invested

$3,345.89

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$380.17

Record

12%

4-29 (33)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.29

Value

$21.57

PnL

-$39.72

Record

23%

514-1702 (2216)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.46

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$1.34

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.91

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$7.86

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.97

Value

$10.54

PnL

-$19.42

Record

8-97 (105)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.64

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$8.84

Record

10%

9-79 (88)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$2.19

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.