Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 40¢ · $78 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$77.59
-$17.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $32.2 | $27.8 | -$4.4 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $26.88 | $13.42 | -$0.66 | — 1-9 (10) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12.06 | $12.46 | +$0.4 | — 6-8 (14) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $7.8 | $12.4 | +$4.6 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
 HoshinoAI<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $50.27 | $11.51 | -$17.55 | — 10-8 (18) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$32.2
Value
$27.8
PnL
-$4.4
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$26.88
Value
$13.42
PnL
-$0.66
Record
—
1-9 (10)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$12.06
Value
$12.46
PnL
+$0.4
Record
—
6-8 (14)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$4.6
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
HoshinoAI<$100Invested
$50.27
Value
$11.51
PnL
-$17.55
Record
—
10-8 (18)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.