Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600B on November 30?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $120 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$120.32
$1.81
91.3¢ → 94¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $36.8 | $37.8 | +$1 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $30.54 | $32.13 | +$1.59 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $19.48 | $19.49 | +$0 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $18.9 | +$1.3 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $8.83 | $8.87 | +$0.05 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2 | $1.37 | -$0.62 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $1.1 | -$1.1 | — 1-9 (10) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.09 | $0.65 | -$0.41 | — 6-8 (14) |
Invested
$36.8
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$30.54
Value
$32.13
PnL
+$1.59
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.48
Value
$19.49
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$1.3
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.87
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.37
PnL
-$0.62
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$1.1
Record
—
1-9 (10)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.41
Record
—
6-8 (14)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.