Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on November 30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $230 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$230.42
-$14.77
76.5¢ → 72.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75.3¢ | $110.94 | $107.32 | -$3.62 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $37.55 | $35.07 | -$2.48 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $29.4 | $28.4 | -$1 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $30.3 | $24.14 | -$6.16 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $21.3 | -$0.9 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $14.2 | -$0.6 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
Invested
$110.94
Value
$107.32
PnL
-$3.62
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$37.55
Value
$35.07
PnL
-$2.48
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$28.4
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$30.3
Value
$24.14
PnL
-$6.16
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.2
Value
$21.3
PnL
-$0.9
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$14.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.