Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.3K
$1.3K
42.8¢ → 97.2¢
+127% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
601h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $324.45 | $1.4K | +$1.1K | 55% 211-174 (385) |
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 81¢ | $482.74 | $587.15 | +$102.78 | 60% 307-207 (514) |
 vinii | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $193.69 | $188.76 | -$4.93 | 74% 2727-977 (3704) |
AL Albert 1953<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $4.6 | $72.87 | +$68.03 | 50% 1078-1084 (2162) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $3.28 | $28.01 | +$24.73 | 78% 266-77 (343) |
Invested
$324.45
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
55%
211-174 (385)
Invested
$482.74
Value
$587.15
PnL
+$102.78
Record
60%
307-207 (514)
viniiInvested
$193.69
Value
$188.76
PnL
-$4.93
Record
74%
2727-977 (3704)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$72.87
PnL
+$68.03
Record
50%
1078-1084 (2162)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$28.01
PnL
+$24.73
Record
78%
266-77 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.