Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on November 30?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 66¢ · $155 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$154.7
-$5.65
66.5¢ → 66¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $54.39 | $48.88 | -$3.37 | — 8-8 (16) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $25.6 | $25.4 | -$0.2 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 70.4¢ | $23.92 | $21.59 | -$2.33 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $19.1 | $19.05 | -$0.05 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $19.72 | $18.66 | -$1.05 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $12.58 | $12.68 | +$0.1 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $6.44 | $7.61 | +$1.17 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $0.73 | $0.82 | +$0.09 | 79% 158-41 (199) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$54.39
Value
$48.88
PnL
-$3.37
Record
—
8-8 (16)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$25.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$23.92
Value
$21.59
PnL
-$2.33
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.1
Value
$19.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$18.66
PnL
-$1.05
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$7.61
PnL
+$1.17
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.09
Record
79%
158-41 (199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.