Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on November 30?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $202 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$202.02
$4.4
84.6¢ → 86¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $66.39 | $69.19 | +$2.8 | — 8-8 (16) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $36 | $34.6 | -$1.4 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $27.8 | $29.41 | +$1.61 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $25.95 | +$0.15 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.3 | +$0.3 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.17 | $8.12 | -$0.05 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.49 | $7.45 | -$0.04 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.8 | $5.19 | +$0.39 | 91% 30-3 (33) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $4.17 | $4.81 | +$0.64 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$66.39
Value
$69.19
PnL
+$2.8
Record
—
8-8 (16)
Invested
$36
Value
$34.6
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$27.8
Value
$29.41
PnL
+$1.61
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$8.12
PnL
-$0.05
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.49
Value
$7.45
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$0.39
Record
91%
30-3 (33)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$0.64
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.