Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on November 30?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 94¢ · $126 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$126.07
-$0.75
91.2¢ → 93.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $37.4 | $35.8 | -$1.6 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $28.44 | $30.43 | +$1.99 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $28.1 | $26.85 | -$1.25 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $18.78 | $17.85 | -$0.93 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $8.83 | $8.4 | -$0.42 | 17% 49-241 (290) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $4.07 | $5.68 | +$1.61 | 41% 3064-4447 (7511) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.2 | $1.05 | -$0.15 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
Invested
$37.4
Value
$35.8
PnL
-$1.6
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Invested
$28.44
Value
$30.43
PnL
+$1.99
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.1
Value
$26.85
PnL
-$1.25
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.78
Value
$17.85
PnL
-$0.93
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$0.42
Record
17%
49-241 (290)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$5.68
PnL
+$1.61
Record
41%
3064-4447 (7511)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.