Will Elon Musk join Trump at APEC in China?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 94¢ · $158 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$158.47
-$51.36
79.2¢ → 94¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $82.67 | $57.37 | -$25.3 | 41% 3151-4506 (7657) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $55.98 | $56.7 | +$0.73 | 48% 1229-1315 (2544) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $20.2 | $17.8 | -$2.4 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $27.24 | $13.62 | -$13.62 | 44% 11-14 (25) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $23.47 | $12.8 | -$10.67 | 56% 48-38 (86) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.27 | $0.18 | -$0.1 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
Invested
$82.67
Value
$57.37
PnL
-$25.3
Record
41%
3151-4506 (7657)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$55.98
Value
$56.7
PnL
+$0.73
Record
48%
1229-1315 (2544)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$17.8
PnL
-$2.4
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$27.24
Value
$13.62
PnL
-$13.62
Record
44%
11-14 (25)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$23.47
Value
$12.8
PnL
-$10.67
Record
56%
48-38 (86)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.1
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.