Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 65¢ · $312 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$311.75

Combined PnL

-$0.46

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 64.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$162.53

Total Shares242

Combined PnL+$7.92

No6 traders

Total Value$149.22

Total Shares420

Combined PnL-$8.38

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 60.9¢	$113.9	$120.61	+$6.71	12% 21-155 (176)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$85.1	$81.65	-$3.45	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$38.39	$35.86	-$2.53	17% 66-330 (396)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 61.4¢	$22.19	$22.33	+$0.14	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$18.52	$19.58	+$1.06	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 38.4¢	$16.86	$15.58	-$1.28	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$8.96	$8.16	-$0.8	84% 66-13 (79)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$5.64	$5.56	-$0.08	29% 882-2138 (3020)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$2.65	$2.41	-$0.24	24% 77-243 (320)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$113.9

Value

$120.61

PnL

+$6.71

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$85.1

Value

$81.65

PnL

-$3.45

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$38.39

Value

$35.86

PnL

-$2.53

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.19

Value

$22.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.52

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$1.06

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$16.86

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$1.28

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

auros2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.8

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.08

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.24

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.