Will Eli Cohen be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $130 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$129.98
$1.81
98¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.99 | +$0.29 | 40% 1413-2154 (3567) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 8% 29-324 (353) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.99 | +$0.29 | 15% 41-237 (278) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.99 | +$0.19 | 50% 4547-4459 (9006) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $19.99 | +$1.79 | 53% 5388-4864 (10252) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.8 | $0.04 | -$0.76 | 41% 3041-4429 (7470) |
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
40%
1413-2154 (3567)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
8%
29-324 (353)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
15%
41-237 (278)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
4547-4459 (9006)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$1.79
Record
53%
5388-4864 (10252)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.76
Record
41%
3041-4429 (7470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.